#gielda Ciekawostka: My Investment case could look extreme, but in reality is quite simple, especially after its payoff is visualized as in the chart below.
I'm increasing every month my huge position of 100 years AAA rated Government Bond issued by the wealthiest (and the Westernmost, in case of invasion from the East !) State of Germany, while waiting for the unavoidable Great Global Depression Deflation triggered by a Speculative Bubble Burst a là 1929 coupled with Demographics induced Economic Extinction. I don't short Equity (albeit I'm sure there will be a -60% crash) because I would have to pay & roll put options, while risking to lose -99%. This 100 years Government Bond is paying me eveyday while I'm waiting for the development of the Great Global Depression Deflation. At the same time by holding it till maturity I have fully eliminated any risk of losses.
Today's Bond Price is ~€31. In the worst case scenario, if I'm wrong, my next 2 generations, my daughters and my granchildren will land at ~€191 in 2121 (€100 paid at maturity + 96 years of €0.95 coupons). A ~5.5% Simple Yield booked for 100 years ! Not bad as Wealth Accumulation... And that is the worst case scenario ! Let's now talk about the best case scenario, i.e. if I'm right. If I'm right about my Great Global Depression Deflation forecast this 100 years Bond will be worth ~€301 around the year 2035. Yup. 10x vs now ! Almost +900% because of Convexity Power.
Sumup: Worst case scenario: +5.5% p.a. x 96 years Best case scenario: +100% p.a. x 9 years
There has never been such an exploitable asymmetric risk reward Investment case in the whole Financial History !
@tom-ek12333: Tyle trudu dla 10x które się zrealizuje w obliczu katastrofy. Powrót USA i UE do krajowej produkcji wyniesie wiele spółek w dalsze rejony niż 1000% bez potrzeby niszczenia świata.
My Investment case could look extreme, but in reality is quite simple, especially after its payoff is visualized as in the chart below.
I'm increasing every month my huge position of 100 years AAA rated Government Bond issued by the wealthiest (and the Westernmost, in case of invasion from the East !) State of Germany, while waiting for the unavoidable Great Global Depression Deflation triggered by a Speculative Bubble Burst a là 1929 coupled with Demographics induced Economic Extinction.
I don't short Equity (albeit I'm sure there will be a -60% crash) because I would have to pay & roll put options, while risking to lose -99%.
This 100 years Government Bond is paying me eveyday while I'm waiting for the development of the Great Global Depression Deflation.
At the same time by holding it till maturity I have fully eliminated any risk of losses.
Today's Bond Price is ~€31.
In the worst case scenario, if I'm wrong, my next 2 generations, my daughters and my granchildren will land at ~€191 in 2121 (€100 paid at maturity + 96 years of €0.95 coupons).
A ~5.5% Simple Yield booked for 100 years !
Not bad as Wealth Accumulation...
And that is the worst case scenario !
Let's now talk about the best case scenario, i.e. if I'm right.
If I'm right about my Great Global Depression Deflation forecast this 100 years Bond will be worth ~€301 around the year 2035.
Yup. 10x vs now !
Almost +900% because of Convexity Power.
Sumup:
Worst case scenario: +5.5% p.a. x 96 years
Best case scenario:
+100% p.a. x 9 years
There has never been such an exploitable asymmetric risk reward Investment case in the whole Financial History !
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