[151346136]

#gielda
Najwazniejsze argumenty za recesja:

Man, you've gone deep...

I feel the stench of econometrics here, but let's have a go

All I'm saying is that gdp is near impossible to measure over short stretches

History reveals that almost always the Fed make decisions on eco data that is revised lower, that makes a mockery of their actions at vital, pivotal points

I like real variables

Oil curve, people don't want oil for delivery here

Copper, a scarcity that keeps getting cheaper

Industrial metal prices...

Jobs, and yet hours worked wobbling, the delta in hours worked x jobs gained = not so convincing strong economy

Inflation, and yet at the long end, T prices unchanged for last 3 quarters

The yield curve inversion that persists

Risk aversion in stock selection.

Yeah, they're buying the whizzy, bubbly 7 but no one wants economic stock exposure...

Leading indicators, nasty

Producer prices, gdp deflators globally collapsing

Shipping rates, the same

China metrics now Vs covid shutdown, or now Vs 2019

A mighty suspicion that covid busted already suspicious econometric forecasting models

That the stimie bounty is tapped out by year end

Bank failures before a credit crunch

A systemically important global bank that went kaput despite having excellent regulatory ratios for safekeeping

The stench of banking insolvency should deposits keep repricing higher or flee for pastures with higher, risk-adjusted returns

The new found wisdom that internet banking and the new found speed to remove deposits threatens to eliminate the franchise value of all banks

The Ponzi scheme embedded in $13 trillion of private equity. New fund launches to buy out expiring funds

Profound risk conservatism at lending institutions

The profound leverage of risk parity that saw intra day "safe" British gilts halve last October

Mercantilism that impoverishes households and makes them reliant upon debt

A 5% carry on debt approaching 4x GDP = 20% Volcker

That kind of thing...

https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh/status/1673013742831820800

[a-l_d]

@151346136: pokrzyczeli pojęczeli rynek byka trwa nadal

[programistalvlhard]

@151346136: panie cyferka nie w tym roku, dopiero jak fed zacznie obniżać stopy czyli pewnie 2024, dopiero od Q4 2023 zacznie się pewnie dziać gorzej