Aktywne Wpisy
Zarzutkkake +266
Ale jak to podwójnie zapłacić? Co wy rasiści? Nie wiecie, że plus size to zaleta? Mam chorą tarczyce. Jaki potrójny hepi meal? Kamery nie pokazuja prawdy. To jest problem tych ludzi, że sie tu nie zmieszczą! LUDZIE DAJCIE MI SPOKOJNJE ŻYĆ JA WCZORAJ WŁOSY FARBOWAŁAM I PAXNOKCIE A WY MI MÓWICIE ŻE JA GRUBA!
#bekazgrubasow #humorobrazkowy
#bekazgrubasow #humorobrazkowy
Kumpel19 +37
TL:DR
Please read: Summary of The Wuhan Coronavirus and it's potential implications on you
Many folks have been asking me for thoughts on this matter. And I have seen a lot of misinformation and incorrect concerns, so posting broadly here.
First - please do not comment here with jokes or puns. Victims have been dying and a nation of a Billion people are in near panic mode. I don't care what you say elsewhere, but if you comment on this post with anything of the sort I will never work with you in any capacity.
Second - the Chinese culture and how the government deals with things is extremely different from what you might expect. So some of their actions and my thoughts on the outcomes might seem unreasonable to you, but trust a Chinese person's words here.
I'm going to go over: 1) Brief summary of the situation, 2) How it could potentially impact your business, 3) Why it probably would not be that bad, and 4) In what situations would it be bad
Please read the whole thing, or skip to the TL:DR. The first part might sound scary, but it isn't really as bad.
Summary of the situation
The recent Coronavirus outbreak started in Wuhan and is a relative of the SARS outbreak in 2003 that started in China which infected ~8000 people and killed 800 people (ie 10% death rate).
As of the time of this posting there are ~600 reported infections of the new virus and ~17 deaths. However, experts estimate that China is vastly under reporting these numbers. Still, objectively speaking the virus is relatively mild.
Currently multiple cities in the Wuhan area have been quarantined covering a population of roughly 45 Million people. All outgoing transportation methods have been locked down and even highways out of the areas are starting to restrict outgoing cars.
Hospitals in the affected areas are way over capacity and medical quarantine systems are breaking down - potential patients are getting turned away with basic treatment and told not to leave their homes.
Everyone is donning face masks in public all around China. (This picture is basically how it looks in many public areas in China)
This is the worst period to happen has hundreds of millions of people in China travel around the country for Chinese New Years, potentially spreading it far and wide.
Western media reporting that the quarantine is coming at time before the travel happened have no idea how China works. Most of the travel has already occurred before the quarantine so any risk of spreading has already happened.
Some may think this is an overreaction by the govt and the public.
In some ways it is, but this is due to two reasons:
-China was globally condemned about how slow they dealt with the SARS issue that caused it to take the other extreme this time
-There is very little known about Coronaviruses with no cure and no vaccinations. Even though it seems mild now, any kind of virus in this category has a chance of spreading to something much much worse. Taking one extreme to prevent it getting any worse i think is much better than seeing what it can turn into
How it could impact your business
On time restarting of fulfillment after Chinese New Years depends on the factory and logistics workers that do the bulk of the work to return to work on time.
The vast majority of these basic workers are now far away from their workplaces.
If there is a broader limitation of transportation on the major hubs of production and fulfillment (namely Guangdong, Zhejiang, and surrounding, which already have reported cases) it could mean that the workers can not physically report back to work on time to start production or fulfill orders.
This is a real risk right now, especially since transportation is starting to be limited already. Even if the outbreak is not as severe, the govt may take extra precautions in the weeks after CNY to contain the flow of people, which will disrupt all supply chain activities.
Why it probably won't be that bad
All of these relatively extreme preventative measure taken by the govt and almost every chinese person (ie wearing face masks in public) will be extremely effective in slowing or stopping the spread and impact of the virus itself.
The normal expected time of factory operations restarting is the week of 2/03, which is still quite a while away.
If the virus seems to be contained by then, then it is very unlikely the government will essentially cripple it's economy by further limiting worker transportation to / from major hubs.
The reason why the government is taking such extreme measures now is because they don't want to have to do much more once the holidays are over and risk everything starting up again.
This virus currently appears to be relatively mild - contagiousness is a risk, but not extremely high. And severity appears to be less than that of SARS (the current deaths are typically in the older populations with other conditions already).
The current measures and fear are more acting to prevent the risk of what it can become, rather than the current severity.
In what situation would it be bad (ie what to look out for to gauge what the impact might be in the next weeks)
Unfortunately the incubation period of the virus is currently not known in detail. As I mentioned most of the CNY travel has occurred already, so the quarantine is too late to really stop the spread. So it is a possibility that outbreaks spring up all over the country in the coming week.
Chinese New Years travel is no joke - trains are packed to the brim, in many cases standing room only and are the perfect environments to transmit viruses. Hopefully the prevalence of face mask use will help, but it's never certain.
If widespread outbreaks do occur then you should be at least mentally prepared that further transportation quarantines will be put in place, affecting on time restart of operations.
However, if in the next week it seemed to have slowed or plateaued, even during the somewhat "perfect" storm of situations to enable the viral spread, then you probably have nothing to worry about.
I'll update this thread if any notable news.
For references, there are too many to list and always changing, so just google "Wuhan virus" for the best results.
EDIT:
Here's an article as well on the potential worst case outcome of this outbreak that has been shared:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3047319/wuhan-coronavirus-full-blown-community-epidemic-chinese-health
A noted Infectious Diseases expert believes that this could end up being worst than even SARS.
I think it's certainly a possibility, but I don't want to cause anyone to worry yet because this is only one of many possible outcomes and assumes very strong factors about the virus' contagiousness and severity that we do not have real data on.
So, be prepared that this might happen, but please don't fear the worst yet.
What do I think? I think we don't know enough yet to either relax or worry. Let's see what the days coming will show us.
#wirus #chiny #wuhan #pandemia #2019ncov #epidemia #who
Jakieś tldr? XD