Bardzo ciekawę analizę znalazłem na pikabu. Tłumaczenie automatyczne google. Jest naprawdę długie, udostępniam część. Całość udało mi się wydrukować do pdf. Wpis został skasowany w ciągu 5-10 min. RomanRomanoff 5 minutes ago February 24, 2022. Russia vs Ukraine. Who is...
#rosja #ukraina #wojna #analiza #nato
Bardzo ciekawa analiza znaleziona na pikabu. Tłumaczenie automatyczne google.
Jest naprawdę długie, udostępniam część. Całość udało mi się zapisać. Wpis został skasowany w ciągu 5-10 min.
RomanRomanoff 5 minutes ago
February 24, 2022. Russia vs Ukraine. Who is to blame and who will win?
I conducted an analysis on the Ukrainian situation in 2022 and drew a map for clarity. On it, the red line indicates those regions that the Russian army definitely wants to take control of according to the statement of the leadership, the yellow line indicates the most "positive" scenario for the Russian troops. With this term, I designate a hypothetically possible advance of Russian troops deep into Ukraine. The purple color indicates the PMR, in which Russia has relative "support", although the official authorities of Moldova, taking into account the further development of the situation, can "play this card" and take the PMR under their control, depriving Russia of leverage. After all, it is this factor that more than others hinders the theoretical unification of Moldova and Romania, the issue of which has been repeatedly raised. Orange is NATO countries.
If Russia tries to go deep into Ukraine, it will pull the army far from its own borders, which will untie the hands of saboteurs and partisans in the rear. In addition to everything, it will be difficult to deliver fuel and lubricants and provisions. Also, the Russian fleet and aviation will lose their superiority there, since the Russian Federation does not have its own air bases in this territory, and I also do not see the sea on the map. In this case, the Russian Aerospace Forces will have to fly long distances, and in terms of the number of refuelers (if they are needed), Russia is officially inferior to NATO dozens of times, their aviation is adapted to fly long distances, unlike the Russian one. The way out is the organization of airfields in the occupied part of Ukraine, but they will be more vulnerable without well-functioning defense systems. As a result, a picture is emerging in which the Russian Federation will get stuck in this war due to logistical problems that already exist,
But the most interesting thing is that if they move deep into Ukraine, Russian troops will come close to the borders of NATO countries, where they can start provocations by shelling or otherwise, since the combat-ready part of the Russian army far from their homeland is more vulnerable, and NATO troops were pulled together in advance to the western borders of Ukraine and prepared for such a scenario. Moreover, I believe that it is on this territory that NATO can decide to join the war, since they “raked in the heat” with the hands and forces of that part of the country that somehow supported Russia. During the course of hostilities, enormous damage will be done to the infrastructure of that part of Ukraine on which the Russian army could rely, and now NATO can come into play where Russia is truly hated. By this time, the image of the dictator Putin and Russia as a whole will be demonized in the world, the reserves of fuel and lubricants and the army reserve will be used up, as well as part of the ammunition, equipment and human resources will be lost, which will reduce the combat effectiveness of the Russian army. An interesting fact: according to experts, the cost of one day of waging war, taking into account all the losses, is about $ 1 billion.
Western countries, by playing off two Orthodox Slavic peoples, are killing two birds with one stone, having the opportunity to defeat the Russian army in Western Ukraine and dictating any conditions after that, and getting into their hands a broken, weak, but "grateful" Ukraine, which will now fall out of zones of Russian influence due to the so-called "special operation" on its territory. In turn, the leadership of Ukraine, as you already understood, does not intend to surrender, sign anything and comply with the agreements reached, as before the war (the Minsk agreements are proof of this). In my opinion, the leadership of Ukraine will simply relocate to the reserve capital in Lvov, and from there they will periodically launch counterattacks and manage the rest of the country. This is not a lot, not a few 8-10 regions and approximately 10-15 million of the remaining population. For Ukraine, this will become possible, since Western countries will inject financial resources, supply weapons and ammunition, use mercenaries, and also conduct a successful information war against Russia, turning off social networks is essentially a capitulation of the Russian Federation in the information war. At this time, Russia itself will be overtaken by the deepest economic crisis against the backdrop of sanctions and isolation, and it will simply have nothing to feed and pay the contract army, Chechens and Syrian mercenaries. In turn, protest moods will begin to grow inside the country against the background of the impoverishment of the population, the construction of a new "Iron Curtain" and unemployment, after the withdrawal of foreign companies from the market. A scenario is possible with a mandrel to the combat zone of an urgent army and the mobilization of a combat-ready population, which will further aggravate the situation. It will also be a burden on Russian taxpayers to maintain that part of Ukraine that it manages to capture, because I am sure that Ukraine will relieve itself of all obligations to provide these territories, as it previously did in the Donbass.
As a result, Putin's plan for a quick and victorious "special operation" to raise the rating and divert attention from internal problems will fail. What this will lead to in the future, when the economy and military potential of the Russian Federation is broken and Ukraine is actually destroyed, we will find out very soon. After all, the most powerful alliance that has ever existed on earth, NATO (30 states), can act on the side of Ukraine.
In turn, no one will take the side of Russia. Kazakhstan and Belarus will not do this for hundreds of reasons, and talking about conditional support for such states as Venezuela, North Korea, Eritrea and Armenia is completely anecdotal. Iran, as a regional player, pursues its own interests. But what is interesting is that all Russian "potential allies" are united by the cruelty of the political regime, or the low standard of living of the citizens of these countries, or both. A good company has crept up from Russia, isn't it? I draw your attention to the fact that the trade turnover between the United States and China (which propaganda television so persistently seeks as allies) is several times higher than that of China and the Russian Federation, and pure mathematics suggests who they will choose - as always, their own benefit. In addition, it is more beneficial for China to have a weak Russia,
I remind you that NATO, as an alliance, surpasses Russia many times over in all key parameters, especially in the military budget. More information can be obtained from online sources. Also, the number of declared units of military equipment does not accurately reflect the picture, since half of the Russian rusty, obsolete tanks and artillery pieces simply will not go anywhere.
It must be understood that official NATO is not quite what we are used to talking about in a broad sense. Ireland, Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, Austria, Georgia, New Zealand, Australia, South Korea, Japan, Philippines, South Africa, Mexico and Israel are not members of NATO, but it is clear which side they will take if the US requires them to. The Arab oil countries also support the US in full. There is no need to demand support, the listed states themselves will make a choice in favor of a more attractive development model, with the possibility of deriving greater economic benefits for themselves.
Among other things, one should not forget about the NATO member - Turkey, and the country under its control in the form of Azerbaijan near the borders of Russia, about the Kaliningrad region, which is surrounded by NATO countries, as well as about the Far East, undeveloped for so many years of brilliant rule, which can easily be attacked from the Pacific Ocean. The USA and the company in this region has a huge superiority over Russia in all areas, for example, the US Pacific Navy.
Last but not least, the quasi-state “Chechnya” within Russia itself, with its small army and diasporas in all cities, as well as the support of the Islamic North Caucasus, which, when it “smells like fried”, will declare war on Russia and declare independence. Friends from Turkey and Arab countries, as always, will help, and they will find money to escalate another hotbed of tension from the same Western countries.
to ok 1/3 całości... trochę uciążliwe jest wycinanie grafik z przeglądarki :) (zapisać nie można bo wszystko już zostało skasowane)
tygodnia
Komentarze (96)
najlepsze
- ludzie w Polsce chcieli do NATO, Amerykanie nie wysłali "zielonych ludzików" żeby nas przekonać. Chcieli
@WotWoB: to perspektywa, pewnie rosjanina... nam ciężko postawić się po drugiej stronie, latami mając tłuczone do głowy, NATO chce nas zniszczyć. Gdzieś tu był wykład fina, ex specjalsty wywiadu ds. Rosji, jakoś 20-30 lat się zajmował jeździł tam i tłumaczył tą "kulturę geopolityczną" jakoś tak bym to sparafrazował, warto obejrzeć,
Jaki finał? Pewnie autor jest za tezą, że jeśli na świecie ma nie być Rosji to najlepiej żeby świata nie było w ogóle.
Pomijam chybiony scenariusz zajęcia tak dużej części Ukrainy.
źródło: comment_1647263745nj7ffljWJ3PMFeIAM2GGq9.jpg
Pobierz@slepystraznik: @SNAKE_83: konwoje mają NATOwskie gwarancje bezpieczeństwa tylko do granicy z Ukrainą. To jest oficjalne stanowisko Pentagonu, reszta może sobie radośnie gaworzyć o czym im się tylko podoba.