Lukashenka bet on a loser
Znowu szybko skasowali. Moderacja pikabu czuwa ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) Oryginał jest w telegramowych linkach Author's text from the Belarusian political scientist Valery Karbalevich 03/20/2022
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Znowu szybko skasowali. Moderacja pikabu czuwa ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) Oryginał jest w telegramowych linkach Author's text from the Belarusian political scientist Valery Karbalevich 03/20/2022
SNAKE_83 zZnowu szybko skasowali. Moderacja pikabu czuwa ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Oryginał jest w telegramowych linkach
Lukashenka bet on a loser
Author's text from the Belarusian political scientist Valery Karbalevich 03/20/2022
Everything is rotten in the Kingdom of Denmark
William Shakespeare "Hamlet"
Never in the 30 years of the existence of independent Belarus has the internal political and economic situation in the country depended on external factors as it does now.
Russia has already lost
The war of Russia against Ukraine has launched global processes that will determine the future fate of not only our region, but to a large extent the entire world. And the task of the political leadership of small states is to fit into these processes, catch the dominant trends, bet on the winner and receive all possible dividends.
In this regard, the problem of Belarus is not even so much that the ruling regime has put all the eggs in one basket, on this bloody hippodrome, put it on one horse. The whole strategy of Lukashenka's behavior in this war is built on confidence in Russia's victory. Or a demonstration of such confidence. In an interview with the Japanese TV channel TBS on March 17, Lukashenka said: “Russia will not lose in this war. You are 100% convinced of this too.” In fact, he simply has no choice now, and he has no choice but to convince himself and his entourage of the correctness of such a political line.
Therefore, the fate of Belarus will largely depend on how events develop in Russia, in what state the Russian Federation will leave the war.
And here the main problem looms before Lukashenka. No matter how this war ends, it will become a strong catalyst for the degradation of Russia. The development of this country is blocked at the institutional level. RF is thrown out of the global economy. The technological gap between Russia and the West (and also China) will accelerate. It is easy to imagine what will happen to the Russian economy if the West refuses to import Russian oil and gas. It is unlikely that a country that is not able to convincingly defeat Ukraine can count on the redistribution of the world in its favor. After three weeks of war, any Russian victory will be pyrrhic. Time is working against Russia. Every day of the war is a new step towards the destruction of the former status of the Russian Federation.
Thus, in this deadly game, Lukashenko clearly bet on an outsider, a loser. Lukashenka's Belarus has no chances to win in this game. The Belarusian drama is entering a new stage.
Symptoms of an economic crisis
Now the main internal political factor of Belarus is a sharp deterioration in all economic indicators. It is the economy under the influence of Western sanctions that will now mainly affect all political processes.
Until now, statements by Belarusian officials regarding sanctions have been very optimistic. Say, we are not afraid of them, they will only bring benefits, we will find a way out, we will reorient ourselves to new markets, we will not be intimidated.
But during the visit of the Prime Minister of Belarus Roman Golovchenko to Moscow on March 14, completely different accents sounded in his statements. He stated that the scale of sanctions against Belarus is greater than against Russia (“A number of sanctions are the same as those imposed against the Russian Federation, and a number are superior”). According to him, an embargo has been introduced on the supply of almost all export-oriented sectors of the economy, as well as an actual embargo on the supply of Western components and raw materials. And the Belarusian banking system "fell under cross-total EU and US sanctions." “If we do not take any measures, then this will lead to a gap in the balance of payments, a sharp increase in inflation and a drop in incomes of the population,” the prime minister said.
The new sanctions have only just been introduced, and the signs of the economic crisis are already clearly visible.
The ruble has already depreciated by a third. Due to the shortage of foreign currency, restrictions were introduced on the foreign exchange market. Banks operate under sanctions.
Some goods are disappearing from stores, and prices are rising significantly.
Exports are collapsing before our eyes. The European Union has banned the supply of about 70% of the goods that Belarus exported there. Last year Ukraine accounted for almost 14% of our exports, now it is minimizing.
Western capital is leaving the country, a large-scale relocation of IT companies from Belarus is taking place.
Russian economic aid
Russia remains the only source of assistance to Belarus. As a result of the visit of the Prime Minister of Belarus Roman Golovchenko to Moscow on March 14, his talks with his Russian counterpart Mikhail Mishustin, only some conclusions can be drawn.
According to the Belarusian head of government, a decision was made to restructure and installment plans for state loans provided by Russia, "transferring them from foreign currency to the Russian ruble." That is, Belarus does not seem to face a default yet.
As for the prices for oil and gas, Lukashenka said on March 15: “We will receive energy resources, energy carriers, we will receive them at approximately the same prices, one might say, as in the Russian Federation – what we have always demanded from Russia.”
Whether this is actually the case is hard to say. We must wait for information from the Russian side, because very often the interpretation of the agreements reached by Minsk and Moscow does not coincide. And now it is important for Lukashenka to assure the nomenklatura and the population that everything is in order, he has agreed on everything, so do not panic
It seems that the Belarusian government hopes that now that Western companies have left the Russian market, there are empty niches for Belarusian enterprises that they can easily fill. However, will these hopes come true, because the purchasing power in Russia is sharply declining.
In addition, given the shortage of imported goods and components, competition for them is increasing. Therefore, due to the bans imposed by Russia on the export of a large list of goods, hundreds of trucks are standing on the Belarusian-Russian border, carrying goods to Belarus.
Whatever measures the Belarusian and Russian governments take, the fact remains that now Belarus and Russia are friends in misfortune. And this will soon become clear to the societies of both countries.
The author - Valery Karbalevich - is a Belarusian journalist and political scientist.
Born in 1955 in Russia. In 1978 he graduated from the Belarusian State University. Candidate of Historical Sciences, Associate Professor.
Since 1993 - chief expert, coordinator of the scientific direction of the National Center for Strategic Initiatives "East-West" (since 1998 Analytical Center "Strategy") in Minsk. One of the leading Belarusian political scientists. Political columnist for a number of media. Member of the Political Council of the United Civil Party.
Author of more than 800 publications on various issues of domestic and foreign policy of Belarus. Author of several books about Alexander Lukashenko