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Kiedy bitcoin-maxi odkrywa stopy procentowe i zaczyna atakować ETH sugerując, że USD ma lepsze oprocentowanie, co spowoduje odpływ kapitału, ale w rzeczywistości cierpi, bo powoli uzmysławia sobie, że jego kamień jest na jeszcze gorszej pozycji - stałe 0% dla posiadaczy.

Speculative capital moves in search of the highest total return. Total return has three elements: the interest rate differential, the exchange rate differential, and the capital appreciation in local currency. Since the third element varies from case to case we can propose the following general rule: speculative capital is attracted by rising exchange rates and rising interest rates. Of the two, exchange rates are by far the more important. It does not take much of a decline in the currency to render the total return negative. By the same token, when an appreciating currency also offers an interest rate advantage, the total return exceeds anything that a holder of financial assets could expect in the normal course of events. That is not to say tbat interest rate differentials are unimportant; but much of their importance lies in their effect on exchange rates and that depends on the #!$%@?' perceptions. There are times when relative interest rates seem to be a major influence; at other times they are totally disregarded. For instance, from 1982 to 1986 capital was artacted to the currency with the interest rate, namely, the dollar, but in the late 1970s Switzerland could not arrest the influx of capital even by imposing negative interest rates. Moreover, perceptions about the importance of interest rates are often bong. For instance, until November 1984 the strength of the dollar was widely attributed to high interest rates in the United States. When interest rates declined without the dollar weakening this view was discredited and the dollar went through the roof.


Każdemu zainteresowanemu kryptowalutami polecam przeczytać książkę G. Sorosa "The Alchemy of Finance" (mam nadzieję, że to legalny link, ew. ipfs: ipfs://bafybeiapviktjkp52ukwgvchoeiaols2pyk6wexfoq72fppnoi2pzlgab4 ). Pozwoli lepiej zrozumieć mechanizmy psychologiczne stojące za rynkami i szybko was wyleczy z pustych baniek spekulacyjnych.

#bitcoin #ethereum #kryptowaluty
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