#stratfor Georga Friedmana, czyli tego faceta, nad którym #4konserwy rozpisywały się, ćmokając jak to będziemy lokalnym imperium jak Turcja czy Rosja, dokąd zmierzają wydarzenia z sądami w Polsce:

• There is little Poland can do to counter the effects of the erosion and ending of rule of law, checks and balances and democratic freedom. Further repression will be expected. Investors mindful of the erratic whims of this regime will not trust assurances of any kind and will not risk their investments knowing that the courts are an arm of J. Kaczynski whose ever expanding vendettas may include specific countries or companies;

• Taxes will be raised on business to plug budgetary holes, businesses and investment will begin to flee, up to a 50% drop in investment from current levels by QIV 2017;
• Article 7 may or may not be invoked; however it is now very likely as Europe must protect its democratic core and provide a lesson to any other budding populist entity; a Hungarian veto can be legally circumvented to impose penalties on Poland very shortly; in the long term Hungary will bend to the EU’s will probably obtaining one of the agencies leaving UK due to Brexit; (Given what is happening to Poland, Britain may reconsider Brexit);
• Unemployment will begin to rise, services and benefits cut as deficit will significantly exceed 3%, possibly as high as 5-8% by year end;Pokaż całość